Yours truly is planning a research essay on the impact of social media networks upon the standings of American Idol contestants once the season closes next week. Naturally, local interest has been huge with the presence of David Archuleta. Perhaps unlike any other season, the online buzz, so to speak, is what has defined this year’s competition and why the AI entertainment property will continue to rule the roost in the multi-layered media environment.

There has been much talk about the show’s ratings being off by as much as by ten percent this year, especially among some of the younger demographics. However, going by the numbers, AI still wins the ratings race hands down and by roughly the same margin as it has when the overall television audience for all network programming was much larger. In other words, AI has shed its viewership roughly proportional to what has been happening industry wide. And, it apparently serves as a strong lead-in for Fox’s Hell’s Kitchen, which follows immediately the competition broadcast. Hell’s Kitchen is enjoying its highest ratings ever.

However, turning to the online media environment, one sees the social networking juggernaut that follows the show and its contestants. BuzzLogic reports that online blog traffic apparently is a good indicator of who should be getting the boot. Take, for example, last week’s report, the morning immediately following Tuesday’s performances:

Contestants after Tuesday night’s performances, listed by influential blogs/posts:

David Cook: 546 / 6543
Jason Castro: 498 / 8013
David Archuleta: 432 / 10,163
Syesha Mercado: 221 / 7400

Money quote from BuzzLogic’s analysis:

“There are some interesting numbers, and deltas, here. David Cook has the most influential blogs writing about him, but the fewest influential posts. Syesha is the inverse – she has half as many blogs posting about her, but a large amount of posts. Which scenario is preferable: more influencers talking about a contestant less frequently, or a smaller number of influencers buzzing more consistently? It will be interesting to see how this nets out. Then, there’s David Archuleta, whose name is associated with more posts than any other contestant at this stage of the game. Jason Castro is in the middle in terms of numbers and reach of influential buzz, but the influencers don’t have anything nice to say. He is the influencer pick to go home.”

This post, of course, is being written before this evening’s performances (May 13) but the researcher in me is willing to predict that Miss Mercado will be eliminated tomorrow evening and that the contest between the two Davids next week will culminate in an Archuleta win. Of course, this could change in light of unexpected performances.

To wit the crowds that appeared in Salt Lake City during Archuleta’s homecoming last week. One cannot ignore the marketing-public relations juggernaut that is represented by precisely the same age group that has some television ratings analysts concerned. Perhaps, AI’s most significant presence has transferred online.

We know that the gap between online and television viewing is closing fast. The Television Bureau of Advertising reports:In January 2008, TVB found that 18 to 34 year-olds spent 60.6 minutes more watching TV per day (206.0 minutes) than they did online (145.4 minutes). That is down from June 2006, when the gap was 137.4 minutes: 246.7 minutes for TV and 109.3 minutes online. Moreover, TV time decreased while Internet time increased.

Other industry studies indicate that TV viewership among the youngest consumers is trailing well behind online activities as consumers in the 18-year-old to 24-year-old range went online an average of two more hours per week than they spent watching TV.

A Harris Interactive study shows that girls are spending a great deal of time in social media networking. While more than half of girls between the ages of 13 and 15 use social networking sites, the number has mushroomed among boys and girls between the ages of 10 and 12. The number tripled in just one year. Industry analysts estimate that more than 15.3 million teenagers actively engage in social media networking online. What none of these studies does well, however, is investigate the extent of multitasking in various media among these young consumers. The anecdotal evidence for this is quite strong and would need solid empirical analysis to confirm these observations.

Going back to American Idol, the prospects bode well for the 17-year-old Murray High School student. Just one small indicator of the coordinated online campaign for Archuleta’s benefit is found here, which includes a post from a Facebook member that outlines in impressive detail a voting checklist for Archuleta fans.

Indeed, this may be the first season where the multi-layered platform of television and online media shaped the ultimate selection of the next American Idol.