McCain’s favorite phrase tonight early in the debate was that Americans are angry. McCain did come out swinging on domestic policy and did a distinctly better job at distancing himself from the Bush record tonight than in the previous two debates in the early going. One early line to Obama really struck in its clarity: “I am not President Bush. If you want to run against President Bush, you should have done that four years ago.”

Both men seemed tired this evening but McCain seemed to have Obama a bit off his game at the outset. Tonight, Joe Six Pack became Joe the Plumber more than 20 times during the debate. McCain said: “Joe, I want to tell you I will not only help you buy that business that you have worked your whole life for… and I will not have or stand for a tax increase on small business income… What you [Obama] want to do to Joe the Plummer… is have their taxes increase.” For the first time when it came to economic policy, McCain did manage to move those magical CNN audience dials.

The Joe reference arose from Obama’s most recent visit to Toledo, Ohio, where he delivered his major economic policy speech on Oct. 13. Among the media ops were a reference to a Toledoan who met Obama. During the debate, the Associated Press correspondent for Toledo contacted the man who did not say who he was voting for, but added that he was surprised he was called “Joe the Plumber” repeatedly during the debate. “It’s pretty surreal, man, my name being mentioned in a presidential campaign,” as noted in the AP story.

Incidentally, McCain must be copying Obama. The GOP candidate has announced a rally for this Sunday in Toledo at the same location. And, others have noted that McCain rolled out his economic statement less than 24 hours after Obama announced his in Toledo.

At the debate outset, the body language of both candidates was revealing. Obama looked straight into the camera more intently than McCain did and he looked directly at McCain much more comfortably than the other way around. In one early telling moment, when McCain was asked whether he wanted to ask Obama a question, his facial expressions were very revealing. In his character accusations, McCain could barely look at his opponent. At other times, his tone was clearly sarcastic and he managed to roll his eyes quite often.

However, McCain wanted to focus on campaign dynamics rather than economic issues. Major cognitive dissonance going on at this point of the debate. Sounding cranky and angry himself, he portrayed himself as the brutalized victim of negative advertising and dismissed concerns about attendees at his rallies who had yelled threats against Obama. Clearly looking for random targets, McCain was not displaying a particularly flattering presidential tone. In fact, he sounded petty and excessively so. In response, Obama reminded McCain that all polls show he is running the more negative campaign and that McCain is running 100 percent negative ads (actually the Wisconsin Advertising Project has determined that 73 percent of McCain’s ads during the fall campaign season have been negative). To add, he said the following:

“I think the American people are less interested in our hurt feelings than they are in the issues … The notion that because we are not doing the meetings [town hall meetings that McCain requested long ago] justifies some of the ads going on … I don’t mind being attacked for the next three weeks. What the American people can’t afford is four more years of failed economic policies.”

Incidentally, the CNN audience dials were not responsive to these personal attacks. Obama moved the dials into positive territory when he called for the focus to move back to the issues. McCain likely overplayed his cards here.

Yet, McCain insisted on remaining petty. One example: “I admire so much Sen. Obama’s eloquence and you really have to pay attention to words. He said we can ‘look at’ offshore drilling. You got that? ‘Look at.’ We need to do it now.” With regard to Colombia and free trade, he definitely sounded unpresidential, suggesting to Obama that “maybe you ought to travel down there.” On trade, in general, McCain was — well — very confusing. And, for the record, Sarah Palin just obtained her passport last year.

It was 55 minutes into the debate when Obama sent the CNN audience dials soaring on his plans for retooling plants to manufacture fuel-efficient cars and for creating jobs involved in energy independence. At this point, the debate seemed to turn toward Obama’s favor.

Eight minutes later, the smackdown on healthcare may win as the best moment of the debate. Resurrecting his Joe the Plumber metaphor, McCain said, “Joe, Senator Obama’s plan … If you are out there, my friend, and you have got employees and you got kids, if you don’t get a health care plan that Sen. Obama mandates, he is going to fine you.”

Obama immediately corrects McCain, and looks directly into the camera to address the hypothetical Joe. “Here’s your fine. Zero,” he said, holding up his finger and thumb in a “zero” signal. He continued: “We give you a 50 percent credit for providing health insurance for your employees.” He then excoriates McCain for proposing to tax the health care benefits individuals would receive from their employer. The camera’s pan to McCain registers a priceless look — a mix of stunned, horrified, befuddled reaction. At this point, the CNN dials among women audience members soar for Obama.

On abortion, Obama played much better to his base than McCain to his. “Abortion is a moral issue,” Obama said, signaling a subtle yet significant rhetorical shift from previous Democratic nominees that handles his core base and is acceptable to the broad middle segments. Meanwhile, McCain explained support for Roe v. Wade would not be a “qualification” that would sway his selection of potential Supreme Court justices. And, if one goes to the videotape, one will see readily that McCain said much more last January at the Right to Life March in Washington: “If I am fortunate enough to be elected as the next President of the United States, I pledge to you to be a loyal and unswerving friend of the right to life movement.” To wit, why Obama succeeded in playing to his base on this issue. The CNN audience dials reflected this as well.

Overall, this debate revealed no new statements on the issues. In fact, I believe that most of the lasting moments of the debate will focus on McCain’s disturbingly angry body language and facial gestures which will be great fodder for YouTube mash-up videos. I agree with Ed Rollins, Reagan’s campaign strategist during the 1980 election, who said that, like Reagan, Obama has answered satisfactorily the primary question of the election: Are the American people comfortable with having this nominee as their president? And, like Reagan, Obama has been consistently calm and cool — perhaps more so than any other major presidential candidate in more than two decades. Furthermore, Rollins suggests that Obama’s momentum may be snowballing into a super majority in terms of electoral votes. Certainly, tonight’s debate did nothing to change that conclusion.

Snap Polls:

CBS:

Who won the debate?

Obama, 53%
McCain, 22%

Which candidate shares your values?

Obama — Before, 54%; After, 63%
McCain — Before, 53%; After, 56%

CNN:

Who won the debate?

Obama, 58%
McCain, 31%

Favorable/Unfavorable:

Obama, before: 63%/35%
Obama, after: 66%/33%

McCain, before: 51%/45%
McCain, after: 49%/49% — Note the dips on both measures

Media Curves with Independents:

Who won the debate?

Obama, 60%
McCain, 30%