Readers of The Selective Echo who follow my Twitter feed know well how the campaign to pass Prop 8 has percolated recently in its attempt to ban same-sex marriage in California.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints has mounted a full-court press for passage, urging its members to contribute extensively — now giving more than three out of every four dollars for the effort. The group Californians Against Hate announced yesterday that Mormons have contributed a “staggering” 77 percent of the total raised for pro-Prop 8 groups. In particular:

“The new Mormon total is $19.15 million contributed by over 59,000 Mormon families in just over 3 months. This Mormon power grab continues at the same level — 77 percent of the $24.89 million raised by the Yes on 8 since July 1, 2008. Non-Mormon donations are now at $5.74 million since July 1, which represents 23 percent of the total.”

The group calculated the figures by cross-referencing donor information from the California secretary of state with Brigham Young University alumni lists, church memberships, and other personal documentation that could identify Mormon Church members.

Since June, the church has worked aggressively on behalf of the controversial proposition. First, a letter was issued to be read publicly for the benefit of the some 770,000 Californians who comprise the Mormon congregation. Earlier this month, a video featuring two members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles was aired to encourage church members to contribute to the campaign.

The battle for the souls on this issue is the big political news in California. There is no doubt that Barack Obama will easily win the state’s 55 electoral votes but some pundits — following the various polls — believe that a large African-American voter turnout could be one of the keys in getting the ban passed by a close margin. Among all demographic ethnic and racial groups, Black Californians back the anti-gay measure by a margin of 20 points, 58 - 38, in a recent SurveyUSA poll. Obama’s lead in California is well above the 20-point mark and, in fact, some campaign materials are indicating Obama/Yes on 8 support.

The truth is, however, that unlike surveying candidate support, polling on ballot issues like Prop 8 is a much more difficult affair. Two of the most recent polls have conflicting results. One has the ban passing with a 3-point margin. Another has it losing by 8 points.

There is one interesting bit of fear-driven misinformation that has apparently caught the attention of Web surfers, especially among Mormons and that’s the completely erroneous claims that churches which refuse to perform same-sex marriages would have their tax-exempt status revoked. The wrong message has snowballed recently and anti-Prop 8 groups have missed a significant opportunity to correct the fact.

For example, in a recent blog post by conservative Michelle Malkin, the following was found in the comments section of the blog:

“I am LDS, and the question was raised as to what happens to the LDS church if we ‘refuse to marry gay couples’ as well.

“The answer is not that the Mormon church loses its tax-exempt status, it’s just that the marriages performed by the LDS church, which are now recognized as legal in the eyes of the State of California (I was married there), will not be recognized by the state.

“What this means: Mormons who typically marry in one of the more than 120 temples worldwide–for time and eternity–would be forced to marry, in effect, twice. Once in a state-sanctioned locale, like a courthouse, and again, to affirm their faith in eternal marriage, in what is now known as a ’sealing’ ceremony.”

The Web can sometimes be a terrible place to get accurate, readily verifiable information. If one enters search terms in combinations including the following or similar terms — ‘mormon’ and ‘tax exempt status’ and ‘prop 8′ — one will get a spateful of erroneous citations and references and virtually no officially verified information to refute this outright false claim. Fear, indeed, can be a powerful motivator.

A corrective is needed. At a minimum, those working strenuously against Prop 8 should create a white paper or an FAQ (frequently asked page) that could be readily accessed through a Google search and that would show up high on priority hits for any search engine. At the moment, there is no compelling reason for the LDS church to correct the fear-driven misrepresentation.

One has to hand it to the LDS church for its capacity to move its constituent base on issues to the extent that such appeals don’t essentially threaten the church’s tax-exempt status. Inept and unable to make a consistently valid and reliable ecclesiastical foundation for its belief system, the LDS church leaders, nevertheless, have mastered the arts of the bully pulpit — inspiring a grassroots campaign that runs against basic civil rights, an utterly reprehensible mark on what is shaping up to be an historic election.

Polling analyst Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight.com Web site is one of the most important information sources in advance of the forthcoming election, had the following to say about Prop 8’s prospects:

“On the other hand, because ballot measures are confusing, it is usually better to be on the ‘No’ side of them … people tend to vote ‘no’ on things that they don’t understand. In this case, that gives an advantage to the marriage equality folks. (It may even be the case that some voters vote ‘no’, thinking that they’re voting no to gay marriage, when in fact the wording of the resolution is such that a ‘no’ vote protects gay marriage).

“I’d peg the ‘no’ side as about a 55/45 favorite, but not more than that.”

Well stated. Hopefully, now let’s correct the fear-driven misinformation.


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